Returns, refunds… and rising shopper anxiety
I recently came across this report, and it’s definitely worth a closer look. Seel has just published its 2025 State of Returns and Refunds, based on the analysis of 19 million transactions over the past 24 months, and it offers a very telling snapshot of post-holiday consumer behaviour. Now this report’s data is US based. However, seeing the scale of analysis, it does offer relevant insights and perhaps some can be taken broadly.
Beyond the headline figures, what struck me most is how clearly post-purchase behaviour has become a proxy for consumer confidence. Spending is still there, but reassurance, flexibility and protection now play a central role in the buying decision.
Here are a few insights that stood out.
Shopper anxiety is translating into “insurance at checkout”
One of the most striking data points: post-purchase protections were added 134% more often year-over-year during the 2025 holiday season (November–December).
Consumers are not necessarily buying less, but they are buying more cautiously. Even with inflation flattening at 2.3% by the end of 2025, confidence remains fragile. Adding protection, extended coverage or flexible return options has become a way to reduce perceived risk at the moment of purchase.
For retailers, this is a strong signal: reassurance is no longer a “nice to have” — it’s part of the value proposition.
Returns are rising… and they’re getting more expensive
Returns are not a new challenge, but the scale is changing:
- Return rates increased by 41% in November–December 2025 compared to the same period in 2024
- Average refund value per return rose by 42% in 2025
- Total refund dollars issued between December 26 and January 15 jumped by 336% year-over-year
This combination is particularly painful: more returns, and higher ticket sizes per return. It puts pressure not only on logistics and customer service, but also on cash flow and margin management right after the peak sales period.
Fashion and electronics remain the “usual suspects”
Unsurprisingly, some categories are more exposed than others:
- Fashion returns spiked by 33% during the holiday period compared to the rest of the year
- Consumer electronics saw a 22% holiday return spike
These are categories where expectations, sizing, compatibility or gifting errors are common. What’s interesting is that despite years of optimisation, these return peaks remain structurally high — suggesting that the solution is less about “reducing returns at all costs” and more about designing smarter post-purchase experiences.
The rise of secondhand is also a post-purchase story
Another signal worth watching: secondhand purchases increased by 20% during the 2025 holiday season compared to the previous year.
This is not an isolated phenomenon. The U.S. secondhand apparel market has grown from $28 billion in 2019 to $49 billion in 2024, and holiday gifting is now part of that dynamic.
What’s interesting here is the convergence of trends: shoppers want better prices, more sustainable options, and strong return flexibility. That puts secondhand platforms — and the retailers partnering with them — under the same post-purchase expectations as traditional e-commerce players.
Returns as a loyalty moment, not a loss event
One quote from the report sums it up well. According to Laura Huddle, Chief Revenue Officer at Seel: “Retailers that treat the return experience as a loyalty moment, not a loss event, will gain a leg up on the shifting economic landscape and an even more competitive shopping environment in 2026.”
That idea feels increasingly relevant. Returns are no longer just an operational headache; they’re a brand experience, a trust signal, and sometimes the last interaction a customer will have before deciding whether to come back.
If there’s one overarching lesson from this report, it’s this: what happens after checkout now matters as much as the moment of purchase itself.
Protection, transparency, speed of refund, and clarity of policies are becoming differentiators, especially in periods of economic uncertainty.
I’ve only scratched the surface here and shared a few of the interesting takeaways from the rport. If you want the full Seel 2025 State of Returns and Refunds report can be found here: https://www.seel.com/blog/2025-state-of-returns-refunds
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